Margarita.Pavlova@cerge-ei.cz

Margarita Pavlova

Hi! I'm a PhD Candidate in Economics at CERGE-EI, Prague. I am an applied microeconomist specializing in Labor and Gender Economics. My research focuses on how macroeconomic conditions, labor market policies, and institutional factors shape labor market outcomes. I am particularly interested in the long-term effects of economic shocks, wage determination, and labor market inequalities.

My supervisor is Stepan Jurajda. In Spring 2025, I visited Department of Economics at Yale University hosted by Costas Meghir.

You can find my CV here: CV.

I will be on the 2025-2026 academic job market.

Research

Job Market Paper

Graduates in a Cycle: the Effect of Business Cycle Trajectories on Labor Market Outcomes of College Graduates — draft soon!
Abstract: This paper separates the long-term effects of graduating from college during a recession into two components: (i) selection into college during downturns and (ii) labor market conditions after graduation. Using CPS data from 1976–2024, I show that part of the persistent scarring attributed to graduating during a recession actually reflects negative selection at college entry: students who enrolled in recessions differ systematically from those who enrolled in stronger labor markets. For students who began college in periods of low unemployment and entered the labor market during recessions, the earnings penalty fades within three years. By contrast, for those who enrolled in college during recessions, the effect of an elevated unemployment rate persists for more than a decade. I also find that adverse post-graduation labor market conditions exert a stronger influence on long-term outcomes than the unemployment rate at graduation, lowering average earnings by an additional 2% over the first ten years of a career. These findings highlight the importance of considering both college-entry conditions and early-career environments when assessing the long-term impact of recessions on graduates.

Working Papers

Competition and the Gender Pay Gap: Evidence from Russian Trade Withdrawal — PDF
Abstract: In 2014, Russia imposed an import embargo on selected goods, effectively reducing trade flows and decreasing import competition across several industries. In this paper, I analyze the effect of this decrease in product market competition on the gender pay gap in Russia. This research complements the body of evidence which implies that increases in product market competition lead to lower gender pay gaps. The empirical analysis relates 2011-2019 industry-specific gender wage gaps estimated from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey to the industry-level evolution of import penetration. The results show that a 10 percentage point reduction in import competition leads to an increase of about 4 percentage points in the gender pay gap. This increase is smaller in magnitude than the effect found in the US but larger than that observed in some Eastern European countries. This phenomenon partly corresponds to an exacerbation of the gender employment gap driven primarily by high-skilled women leaving industries where import shares, and consequently competition, declined.

Work in Progress

(Un)Lucky Women: the Effect of Recession on Cohort's Gender Pay Gap

Teaching

Applied Microeconometrics (graduate); teaching assistant, CERGE-EI, Fall 2021

Econometrics I (undergraduate); teaching assistant, IES, Charles University, Spring, 2024

Microeconomics I (undergraduate); teaching assistant, HSE St Petersburg, Fall 2016

Contact

Email: Margarita.Pavlova@cerge-ei.cz

CERGE-EI

Politickych veznu, 7

111 21 Prague 1

Czech Republic